Business
How Nigeria, Other African Countries Can Forge An Inclusive Economic Recovery
By Tolu Oyekan
As of this writing, the spread of COVID-19 in many African countries has been more contained, and the death toll lower, than some had expected in 2020. The economic fallout of the pandemic for Africans, however, will be different and could be more dire than for the rest of the world.
Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for more than half of the world’s populations living at or below the poverty line. A recent World Bank scenario estimates that COVID-19 could push up to 40 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa into extreme poverty, seriously eroding the progress that African countries have made to reduce deprivation during the past two decades.
When the pandemic was declared in April 2020, BCG counseled African governments to develop comprehensive plans in response to the health care crisis and take on broader economic and societal challenges.
We continue to believe that the best course for African leaders is to accelerate economic policy reforms and investments that accentuate inclusion and position countries for a stronger post-pandemic recovery.
Indeed, Africa’s economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis depends on how effectively governments will be able to balance urgent actions to stabilize economies with the structural reforms needed to stimulate sustainable economic development initiatives. An inclusive approach to economic recovery can protect the most vulnerable populations in the short term and improve their prospects in the long term. Select initiatives in Nigeria present a case in point.
The Pandemic’s Economic Fallout in Nigeria
Nigeria is the largest economy in Africa and one of four African countries included on BCG’s Middle Billion list of rapidly transforming developing countries where local entrepreneurs attract global investment, especially in emerging tech-driven industries. Yet almost 83 million people—40% of the country’s population—live below the country’s poverty line of $381.75 per household, per year, according to the 2018–2019 living standards survey by Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics.
World Bank 2021 projections for Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole warn of protracted economic flux throughout the year. Even with a modest rebound from recession, there is a risk that a steep drop in per capita income could push tens of millions more people into poverty.
South Africa and Nigeria, the continent’s most populous country, face the most severe setbacks, according to the projections. Lower oil prices, combined with pandemic-related factors, add to the strains on Nigeria’s economy and the risks for its most vulnerable citizens.
These concerns prompted the Nigerian government to undertake a wide range of activities to stimulate economic growth with a focus on economic inclusion. Specifically, Nigeria aims to leverage public-private partnerships to create economic opportunities for marginalized populations.
In June 2020, Nigeria’s government revised its economic sustainability plan to double down on stimulus investments and policy interventions in order to revive the growth of bedrock industries (such as oil, tourism, and aviation), and accelerate growth in emerging businesses in other industries (such as small and midsize enterprises and alternative energy) that promote economic inclusion and opportunity.
Specifically, the government is focusing on expanding mobile smartphone service, digital financial services, and home-based solar electricity for low-income households.
Mobile Money and Telcos Connect
Using cash and paying bills in person have historically been the norm, especially among the unbanked populations. This has changed since COVID-19. From the early days of the pandemic, leading contactless payment startups in Nigeria launched initiatives to encourage consumers and merchants to sign up for their services. As BCG has written, financial institutions in Africa were the first to introduce mobile payments.
In Nigeria, the push for cashless transactions has prompted mobile money providers to leverage the networks of telecommunications companies in order to sign up mobile money customers. This is important because most poor Nigerians own a cell phone, but they don’t have a bank account.
The percentage of the adult population with access to financial services in Nigeria grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6% from 2008 to 2012 but by only 1% from 2012 to 2018, according to an annual survey by Enhancing Financial Innovation & Access, a financial-sector development organization. This low rate persisted despite meaningful reforms implemented by the Nigerian government before the pandemic to accelerate financial inclusion.
In 2018, for example, the government issued payment services guidelines for financial service providers and telcos seeking to expand their customer bases among the unbanked, especially in rural areas. However, it took some time for the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to issue the licenses that telcos need to operate as a payment service bank (PSB). In August 2020, the CBN licensed three new PSBs, which can now offer high-volume, low-value digital transaction services, such as remittances, microsavings accounts, and withdrawals. Extending the reach of mobile banking services to rural unbanked populations could also allow the government to deliver social welfare benefits directly to those citizens’ bank accounts.
Pay-as-You-Go Solar Service
The Nigerian government is aiming to install new home solar power systems and mini-grids for 5 million low-income households by the end of 2023. Many of those households—which either rely on small, inefficient generators for electricity or have no power source at all—will need to use PAYGo, an installment financing option of fered with mobile money bank accounts, to purchase the installation kits for these systems. Customers with an existing mobile money account may apply and qualify for a PAYGo loan more easily than others.
Our analysis shows that a PAYGo loan would make solar kits affordable for about half of the 31 million households that do not have reliable electricity and may also considered to be in a low income bracket.
What’s more, we found that 3.2 million out of 17 million households currently using kerosene and candles as their lighting source could afford the monthly PAYGo payments based on their current spending on lighting, plus about 10% of their nonfood budget.
We expect that the scaling of mobile money accounts, along with home solar power kits financed with installment loans, will have a sustained economic impact on low-income populations well beyond any 2021 recovery.
A recent USAID research brief estimates that 15% to 30% of PAYGo solar customers will create a credit history for the first time when they purchase a solar home system with a PAYGo plan. That credit history could, in turn, lead to other loans for large expenses, such as school fees, which can consume up to 40% of a family’s annual income. Credit histories are also a critical driver of growth for small-business enterprises and first-time business entrepreneurs.
The USAID brief also noted advantages for providers: PAYGo solar customers generate more than twice as much revenue per user for a mobile money provider than the average customer.
A Stronger Recovery and Future
While increases in poverty and economic inequality are possible, they are not inevitable. As we see it, the economic hardships caused by the pandemic give governments a chance to examine the strengths and shortcomings of past policies and strategies and address the current structural inequities in their economies.
Linking economic inclusion initiatives across several industries could also have positive, and enduring, multiplier effects. Time will tell whether Nigeria’s inclusive recovery plans succeed. All African governments, and the policymakers who are working with them, must look beyond the crisis to ensure that the resources deployed today build a better foundation to achieve a more equitable future.
African Marketplace (AMP) is set to return for its highly anticipated second edition from October 10–12, 2026, at the prestigious Conrad Hotel Dubai, following the success of its landmark 2025 debut. The three-day event will once again convene some of the finest products, services, creatives, and innovators from Africa and the Caribbean, connecting them with global buyers, investors, policymakers, distributors, and cultural enthusiasts in one of the world’s most strategically connected trade capitals.African Marketplace is a pan-continental trade and cultural platform designed to spotlight Africa’s and the Caribbean’s finest export-ready brands, SMEs, and innovators, empowering them to scale internationally, unlock investment opportunities, and achieve global relevance. African Marketplace 2026 will showcase the richness of African and Caribbean heritage alongside contemporary innovation across fashion, furniture, art, cuisine, music, technology, wellness, and intellectual capital.Speaking on the announcement, Ibukun Awosika, Founder of African Marketplace and the Ibukun Awosika Leadership Academy (IALA), said: “African Marketplace 2025 was proof of concept. What the world witnessed in Dubai was not potential, it was excellence in full expression.” “For 2026, we are going even further. We are building on that foundation with greater scale, sharper commercial focus, and an even stronger declaration that Africa and the Caribbean are not waiting to be discovered. We are here. We are globally ready. And we are building our own tables. Dubai is where we invite the world to experience who we truly are.” She added.Through curated exhibitions, business networking, investment conversations, cultural showcases, and strategic partnerships, African Marketplace continues to position itself as a leading platform connecting Afro-Caribbean excellence to global opportunity. More than an exhibition, AMP serves as both a commercial gateway and cultural platform; creating meaningful opportunities for trade, investment, collaboration, and cross-cultural exchange on a global scale.As the platform grows year after year, AMP remains committed to building a lasting ecosystem where commerce, culture, innovation, and identity converge.EXHIBITOR REGISTRATION IS NOW OPENBusinesses, investors, partners, and attendees interested in participating in African Marketplace Dubai 2026 can learn more at:www.theafricanmarketplace.orgFor media inquiries, sponsorship opportunities, or partnership proposals, please contact:info@theafricanmarketplace.orgAbout African MarketplaceAfrican Marketplace (AMP) is a pan-African trade and culture platform connecting Africa and the Caribbean to global markets through commerce, creativity, innovation, and strategic partnerships. Hosted annually in Dubai, AMP provides export-ready businesses and entrepreneurs with access to international visibility, investment opportunities, and global networks.
Business
UAE’s Exit from OPEC: Eroding Pricing Power, Saudi Arabia’s Response, and the Implications for Nigeria
By Uwadiae Osadiaye, Head of Alternative Investments, FirstCap Limited
In a move that has sent ripples through global energy markets, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced on April 28, 2026, that it will formally withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the broader OPEC+ alliance effective May 1. The UAE, one of OPEC’s largest and most capable producers with output around 3.2–3.6 million barrels per day (bpd) and significant spare capacity, cited national interests and the need for production flexibility amid the ongoing energy crisis linked to Iran-related disruptions.This departure marks a historic fracture in the nearly 60-year-old cartel and follows precedents like Angola’s 2024 exit over quota disputes. For Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer and a longtime OPEC member, the implications centre on weakened cartel cohesion, diminished pricing power, and direct pressure on revenues.Impact on Oil Prices and OPEC Pricing PowerFree from quotas, the UAE is expected to ramp up production toward 5 million bpd. While current supply disruptions may limit the immediate effect, the added volume will exert downward pressure on prices and increase volatility in the medium to long term. Analysts point to potential declines of $5–7 per barrel once markets normalize.More critically, the exit undermines OPEC’s core pricing power. The UAE brought meaningful spare capacity; its departure leaves Saudi Arabia carrying a heavier burden for any future production cuts needed to stabilize prices. This makes defending price levels more costly and less effective for the Kingdom.Saudi Arabia’s Response: A Strategic Setback and Managed RiftSaudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, regards the UAE exit as a significant blow to its influence. Riyadh has kept public reactions measured, emphasising the resilience of deep trade, investment, and logistical ties between the two economies. Analysts note that a full economic rupture would harm both sides and is unlikely amid shared regional threats. Behind the scenes, however, the move exposes and widens longstanding rifts over oil quotas, Yemen, Sudan, and regional influence. It forces Saudi Arabia to shoulder more of the stabilisation burden alone, weakening its ability to enforce discipline across the group. The exit is seen as the UAE asserting autonomy and rejecting Saudi-led oil governance. A recent Gulf summit was described positively by UAE officials, indicating efforts to contain fallout.This response highlights Saudi Arabia’s recalibration: maintaining core OPEC leadership while adapting to a less reliable alliance structure. It may push Riyadh toward more unilateral production decisions or tighter coordination with remaining compliant members.Domino Risks and Further Erosion of InfluenceVenezuela, with vast reserves and recovering output, emerges as a potential next candidate for greater independence or even exit, alongside other quota-frustrated producers. A cascade of departures could render OPEC largely symbolic, leaving global oil prices driven primarily by market forces rather than coordinated cuts. This would likely result in a structurally lower price floor and higher volatility.Direct Effects on NigeriaNigeria remains heavily dependent on oil for export earnings and government revenue. With production often falling short of its ~1.5 million bpd OPEC quota (recent figures around 1.38 million bpd amid theft, vandalism, and infrastructure issues), the country has limited ability to offset price weakness through higher volumes.Softer prices or sustained volatility would widen fiscal deficits, pressure the naira, and complicate budgets benchmarked around $65–70 per barrel. Angola’s experience showed that quota freedom alone does not guarantee production gains when structural problems persist- Nigeria risks similar constraints. A weaker OPEC, with reduced Saudi leverage to enforce discipline, further diminishes the “price floor” protection African producers have relied upon.In this environment, Nigeria’s longstanding challenges – upstream security, investment attraction, and economic diversification – become even more urgent. While the country has reaffirmed commitment to OPEC, the cartel’s diminishing pricing power (exacerbated by the Saudi-UAE rift) means future revenue stability cannot be taken for granted.Outlook: Navigating a More Fragmented Oil Order The UAE’s exit, Saudi Arabia’s measured but strained response, and the resulting erosion of OPEC cohesion signal a structural decline in the cartel’s pricing influence and a more market- driven oil era. For Nigeria, this heightens fiscal and currency risks tied to its oil dependence while underscoring the limits of relying on collective producer power.In the short term, elevated prices from geopolitical disruptions may provide a temporary buffer. Over the medium to long term, however, increased supply from the UAE (and potentially others) combined with weaker coordination could sustain volatility and a softer price environment. Saudi Arabia’s heavier stabilisation role may lead to more pragmatic quota adjustments or unilateral actions, but it also risks exposing fractures that smaller members like Nigeria cannot easily exploit.ConclusionNigeria’s path forward requires decisive action. Upstream priorities should include intensified security operations against oil theft, accelerated infrastructure upgrades, and targeted incentives to attract investment – addressing the chronic underproduction that has left the country unable to capitalise on quota flexibility. Downstream and diversification efforts remain critical: expanding refining capacity, developing gas resources, and growing non-oil sectors (agriculture, manufacturing, and services) will reduce vulnerability to crude price swings.Diplomatically, Nigeria must engage actively within a diminished OPEC, potentially advocating for more flexible arrangements that reflect African producers’ realities. Broader economic reforms—fiscal discipline, improved revenue management, and naira stability measures—will determine whether external shocks translate into crises or catalysts for resilience.Ultimately, the Gulf realignment and OPEC’s evolution present Nigeria with both risks and opportunities. In a world where oil market power is fragmenting, proactive domestic transformation offers the most reliable route to energy security and sustainable growth. The coming months will test whether Nigerian policymakers seize this moment or allow it to deepen existing vulnerabilities.FirstCap Limited is a dynamic investment banking and capital markets advisory firm, and a subsidiary of First HoldCo Plc, one of Africa’s most resilient and trusted financial institutions. With over two decades of experience delivering tailored financial solutions that drive growth, transformation, and long-term value. Our core expertise spans mergers and acquisitions, capital raising, and strategic financial advisory. Backed by a proven record of landmark transactions across multiple sectors, We are a trusted partner of choice for corporations, institutions, and entrepreneurs navigating complex financial landscapes.https://firstcapltd.com/
Business
FIRSTCAP CLOSES N4.46BN LAPO MFB SPV PLC SERIES 1 BOND, DEEPENS ACCESS TO LONG TERM CAPITAL
IMG_5294 L-R: Chief Finance Officer, LAPO Microfinance Bank, Emmanuel Igiehon; Managing Director, LAPO Microfinance Bank, Cynthia Ikponmwosa; Managing Director, FirstCap Limited, Ukandu E. Ukandu, and Head of Capital Markets, FirstCap Limited, Oluseun Olatidoye, at the LAPO MFB SPV Plc Series 1 Bond Issuance Signing Ceremony recently held in Lagos.
Lagos, Nigeria – April 2026 — FirstCap Limited, a leading investment banking firm and subsidiary of FirstHoldCo Plc., has successfully closed the ₦4.46 billion Series 1 Bond Issuance by LAPO MFB SPV Plc, reinforcing its strong leadership in Nigeria’s debt capital markets and deepening access to long term funding for high impact sectors.Acting as Lead Issuing House, FirstCap structured the fund raising on behalf of LAPO MFB SPV Plc (a company sponsored by LAPO Microfinance Bank Limited to mobilise institutional capital targeted at SME financing, renewable energy expansion, and digital financial services, three critical drivers of inclusive and sustainable economic growth in Nigeria.The transaction is underpinned by a compelling impact thesis, with proceeds strategically deployed to support small businesses and clean energy initiatives. The microfinance sector continues to demonstrate resilience and strong fundamentals positioning the issuance at the intersection of growth, sustainability, and financial inclusion.Commenting on the transaction, Ukandu E. Ukandu, Managing Director, FirstCap Limited, said:
L- R: Company Secretary, LAPO Microfinance Bank, Peggy Idehoy; Managing Director, LAPO Microfinance Bank, Cynthia Ikponmwosa; Managing Director, FirstCap Limited, Ukandu E. Ukandu; Chief Finance Officer, LAPO Microfinance Bank, Emmanuel Igiehon, at the LAPO MFB SPV Plc Series 1 Bond Issuance Signing Ceremony recently held in Lagos.
“This successful issuance underscores our strategic commitment to directing capital where it delivers measurable economic impact. At FirstCap, we partner with institutions that have the scale, discipline, and vision to transform markets, and LAPO exemplifies these qualities.The ₦4.46 billion bond is positioned to be a catalyst for SME growth, expanded energy access, and broader financial inclusion. We remain committed to structuring transactions that are not only bankable, but impactful and aligned with Nigeria’s long term economic trajectory.”FirstCap Limited remains committed to leading from the forefront of Nigeria’s capital markets, structuring transactions that are bankable, impactful, and investable, while supporting the future trajectory of Nigeria’s economic development.”
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